预测未来的世界事件是一项具有挑战性但有价值的任务。对气候，地缘政治冲突，大流行和经济指标的预测有助于塑造政策和决策。在这些领域中，专家人类的判断有助于最佳预测。鉴于语言建模的进步，这些预测可以自动化吗？为此，我们介绍了AutoCast，这是一个包含数千个预测问题和随附的新闻语料库的数据集。问题来自预测锦标赛，确保高质量，现实世界中的重要性和多样性。新闻语料库是按日期组织的，使我们能够精确模拟人类过去的预测（避免将来泄漏）的条件。我们的动机是由于数量级的预测数字的难度（例如，2022年的Covid-19的全球案例），我们还策划了Intervalqa，这是数值问题和校准的数值问题和指标的数据集。我们在预测任务上测试语言模型，并发现绩效远低于人类专家基线。但是，随着新闻语料库中相关信息的合并，绩效提高了绩效。总而言之，AutoCast对大型语言模型提出了一个新颖的挑战，并提高了性能可能会带来很大的实际收益。

语言模型既展示了定量的改进，又展示了新的定性功能，随着规模的增加。尽管它们具有潜在的变革性影响，但这些新能力的特征却很差。为了为未来的研究提供信息，为破坏性的新模型能力做准备，并改善社会有害的效果，至关重要的是，我们必须了解目前和近乎未来的能力和语言模型的局限性。为了应对这一挑战，我们介绍了超越模仿游戏基准（Big Bench）。 Big Bench目前由204个任务组成，由132家机构的442位作者贡献。任务主题是多样的，从语言学，儿童发展，数学，常识性推理，生物学，物理学，社会偏见，软件开发等等。 Big-Bench专注于被认为超出当前语言模型的功能的任务。我们评估了OpenAI的GPT型号，Google内部密集变压器体系结构和大型基础上的开关稀疏变压器的行为，跨越了数百万到数十亿个参数。此外，一个人类专家评估者团队执行了所有任务，以提供强大的基准。研究结果包括：模型性能和校准都随规模改善，但绝对的术语（以及与评估者的性能相比）；在模型类中的性能非常相似，尽管带有稀疏性。逐渐和预测的任务通常涉及大量知识或记忆成分，而在临界规模上表现出“突破性”行为的任务通常涉及多个步骤或组成部分或脆性指标；社交偏见通常会随着含糊不清的环境而随着规模而增加，但这可以通过提示来改善。

在真实世界的机器学习应用中，可靠和安全的系统必须考虑超出标准测试设置精度的性能测量。这些其他目标包括分销（OOD）鲁棒性，预测一致性，对敌人的抵御能力，校准的不确定性估计，以及检测异常投入的能力。然而，提高这些目标的绩效通常是一种平衡行为，即今天的方法无法在不牺牲其他安全轴上的性能的情况下实现。例如，对抗性培训改善了对抗性鲁棒性，但急剧降低了其他分类器性能度量。同样，强大的数据增强和正则化技术往往提高鲁棒性，但损害异常检测，提出了对所有现有安全措施的帕累托改进是可能的。为满足这一挑战，我们设计了利用诸如分数形的图片的自然结构复杂性设计新的数据增强策略，这优于众多基线，靠近帕累托 - 最佳，并圆形提高安全措施。

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown satisfying performance on various graph learning tasks. To achieve better fitting capability, most GNNs are with a large number of parameters, which makes these GNNs computationally expensive. Therefore, it is difficult to deploy them onto edge devices with scarce computational resources, e.g., mobile phones and wearable smart devices. Knowledge Distillation (KD) is a common solution to compress GNNs, where a light-weighted model (i.e., the student model) is encouraged to mimic the behavior of a computationally expensive GNN (i.e., the teacher GNN model). Nevertheless, most existing GNN-based KD methods lack fairness consideration. As a consequence, the student model usually inherits and even exaggerates the bias from the teacher GNN. To handle such a problem, we take initial steps towards fair knowledge distillation for GNNs. Specifically, we first formulate a novel problem of fair knowledge distillation for GNN-based teacher-student frameworks. Then we propose a principled framework named RELIANT to mitigate the bias exhibited by the student model. Notably, the design of RELIANT is decoupled from any specific teacher and student model structures, and thus can be easily adapted to various GNN-based KD frameworks. We perform extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets, which corroborates that RELIANT achieves less biased GNN knowledge distillation while maintaining high prediction utility.

In robust Markov decision processes (MDPs), the uncertainty in the transition kernel is addressed by finding a policy that optimizes the worst-case performance over an uncertainty set of MDPs. While much of the literature has focused on discounted MDPs, robust average-reward MDPs remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we focus on robust average-reward MDPs, where the goal is to find a policy that optimizes the worst-case average reward over an uncertainty set. We first take an approach that approximates average-reward MDPs using discounted MDPs. We prove that the robust discounted value function converges to the robust average-reward as the discount factor $\gamma$ goes to $1$, and moreover, when $\gamma$ is large, any optimal policy of the robust discounted MDP is also an optimal policy of the robust average-reward. We further design a robust dynamic programming approach, and theoretically characterize its convergence to the optimum. Then, we investigate robust average-reward MDPs directly without using discounted MDPs as an intermediate step. We derive the robust Bellman equation for robust average-reward MDPs, prove that the optimal policy can be derived from its solution, and further design a robust relative value iteration algorithm that provably finds its solution, or equivalently, the optimal robust policy.

Medical image segmentation (MIS) is essential for supporting disease diagnosis and treatment effect assessment. Despite considerable advances in artificial intelligence (AI) for MIS, clinicians remain skeptical of its utility, maintaining low confidence in such black box systems, with this problem being exacerbated by low generalization for out-of-distribution (OOD) data. To move towards effective clinical utilization, we propose a foundation model named EvidenceCap, which makes the box transparent in a quantifiable way by uncertainty estimation. EvidenceCap not only makes AI visible in regions of uncertainty and OOD data, but also enhances the reliability, robustness, and computational efficiency of MIS. Uncertainty is modeled explicitly through subjective logic theory to gather strong evidence from features. We show the effectiveness of EvidenceCap in three segmentation datasets and apply it to the clinic. Our work sheds light on clinical safe applications and explainable AI, and can contribute towards trustworthiness in the medical domain.

Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) is widely utilized in real-world applications to enable collaborative learning while protecting data privacy and safety. However, previous works show that parties without labels (passive parties) in VFL can infer the sensitive label information owned by the party with labels (active party) or execute backdoor attacks to VFL. Meanwhile, active party can also infer sensitive feature information from passive party. All these pose new privacy and security challenges to VFL systems. We propose a new general defense method which limits the mutual information between private raw data, including both features and labels, and intermediate outputs to achieve a better trade-off between model utility and privacy. We term this defense Mutual Information Regularization Defense (MID). We theoretically and experimentally testify the effectiveness of our MID method in defending existing attacks in VFL, including label inference attacks, backdoor attacks and feature reconstruction attacks.

Video semantic segmentation (VSS) is beneficial for dealing with dynamic scenes due to the continuous property of the real-world environment. On the one hand, some methods alleviate the predicted inconsistent problem between continuous frames. On the other hand, other methods employ the previous frame as the prior information to assist in segmenting the current frame. Although the previous methods achieve superior performances on the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) data, they can not generalize well on other unseen domains. Thus, we explore a new task, the video generalizable semantic segmentation (VGSS) task that considers both continuous frames and domain generalization. In this paper, we propose a class-wise non-salient region generalized (CNSG) framework for the VGSS task. Concretely, we first define the class-wise non-salient feature, which describes features of the class-wise non-salient region that carry more generalizable information. Then, we propose a class-wise non-salient feature reasoning strategy to select and enhance the most generalized channels adaptively. Finally, we propose an inter-frame non-salient centroid alignment loss to alleviate the predicted inconsistent problem in the VGSS task. We also extend our video-based framework to the image-based generalizable semantic segmentation (IGSS) task. Experiments demonstrate that our CNSG framework yields significant improvement in the VGSS and IGSS tasks.

The stock market prediction has been a traditional yet complex problem researched within diverse research areas and application domains due to its non-linear, highly volatile and complex nature. Existing surveys on stock market prediction often focus on traditional machine learning methods instead of deep learning methods. Deep learning has dominated many domains, gained much success and popularity in recent years in stock market prediction. This motivates us to provide a structured and comprehensive overview of the research on stock market prediction focusing on deep learning techniques. We present four elaborated subtasks of stock market prediction and propose a novel taxonomy to summarize the state-of-the-art models based on deep neural networks from 2011 to 2022. In addition, we also provide detailed statistics on the datasets and evaluation metrics commonly used in the stock market. Finally, we highlight some open issues and point out several future directions by sharing some new perspectives on stock market prediction.

We present X-Decoder, a generalized decoding model that can predict pixel-level segmentation and language tokens seamlessly. X-Decodert takes as input two types of queries: (i) generic non-semantic queries and (ii) semantic queries induced from text inputs, to decode different pixel-level and token-level outputs in the same semantic space. With such a novel design, X-Decoder is the first work that provides a unified way to support all types of image segmentation and a variety of vision-language (VL) tasks. Further, our design enables seamless interactions across tasks at different granularities and brings mutual benefits by learning a common and rich pixel-level visual-semantic understanding space, without any pseudo-labeling. After pretraining on a mixed set of a limited amount of segmentation data and millions of image-text pairs, X-Decoder exhibits strong transferability to a wide range of downstream tasks in both zero-shot and finetuning settings. Notably, it achieves (1) state-of-the-art results on open-vocabulary segmentation and referring segmentation on eight datasets; (2) better or competitive finetuned performance to other generalist and specialist models on segmentation and VL tasks; and (3) flexibility for efficient finetuning and novel task composition (e.g., referring captioning and image editing). Code, demo, video, and visualization are available at https://x-decoder-vl.github.io.